A FUTURISTIC APPROACH TO THE CEMENT INDUSTRY IN THE CAPITAL MARKET BASED ON SCENARIO PLANNING METHOD
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Abstract
This study tries to determine the scenarios for the cement industry in the capital market in at least 10-year future time horizon, and identify its possible, probable, and desirable futures. The research is applied in terms of purpose, because it produces usable results in the operating field, and is a survey study based on the data collection method to identify the nature of the existing conditions, their relationship and their impact in the future. The Delphi method and experts’ opinions were used to collect data. Then the environmental factors affecting the industry market, including trends, the predetermined elements and factors of uncertainty were identified by collecting data and using the experts’ questionnaire. In the next stage, two key uncertainties – sanctions and government support – were identified from a sample of experts and executives in the cement industry (n=10). Then using the key uncertainties and creating a scenario matrix and referring to all the collected factors and data in the previous stages, four scenarios called the limited market, the declining share, the large domestic and foreign market and the free and fully competitive market were developed.
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